da brwin： It’s been an incredible start to the 20/21 Premier League season with plenty of talking points, including controversial penalty decisions, VAR drama and bags of goals. There’s still a lot of football left to play, but we now have an idea on which clubs will be battling out for the title and who will be involved in a relegation scrap. Using expected goals (xG) Infogol’s Jake Osgathorpe sums up the performance of sides at both ends of the table and provides some insight into what fans can expect over the coming months.
da esoccer bet： Have City taken a backwards step in attack?
Many people tipped Manchester City to reclaim the league this season. After finishing 18-points adrift of Liverpool last year, fixing their problematic defence seemed to be the solution.
However, it hasn’t quite gone to plan and with only 10 league goals so far this campaign they aren’t the ruthless City that we’ve all come to expect.
At the same stage last season, they had already scored 27 goals, although Infogol’s data shows it isn’t just down to a lack of clinical finishing. Their creativity has also slipped and are averaging only 1.53 xGF per game. This is their worst attacking process since Pep Guardiola took over. When you compare that against last year when they averaged 2.67 xGF per game, there is some cause for concern.
Manchester City xGF per game by season under Pep Guardiola
City had a shorter pre-season than the majority of other clubs as they were involved in last season’s extended Champions League campaign. Although they’ve looked good in spells, they haven’t been able to put together a consistent run of performances. Pep will be hoping that the players find their rhythm when league football returns on Saturday.
They have also been without strikers Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus. Without a recognized striker they have had to adapt their system and tactics, which could have impacted the number of chances they create.
With both Aguero and Jesus available to play against Tottenham we should have a better idea of whether City are still the attacking threat they used to be. But unless City start creating more chances on a regular basis they will struggle to challenge for the Premier League title.
Brighton should trust the process
Although Brighton find themselves in sixteenth place, the Infogol data shows that the Seagulls have been very unfortunate to be so low, as based on expected points (xPoints) they should actually be fifth in the league.
Graham Potter’s side have been excellent, winning the xG battle in five of their eight league games. The results just haven’t gone their way.
Brighton results 20/21 Premier League
They have the sixth highest expected goal difference (+2.4 xGD) in the league and an underlying process of a team that should be in the top half (1.50 xGF, 1.20 xGA per game).
If Brighton can maintain this level of performance for the remainder of the season they should stay well clear of the relegation places and climb up towards mid-table.
Don’t get carried away with Tottenham’s improvement
With 17 points from eight games, people are talking about Tottenham’s title credentials.
The xG data proves how much Spurs have improved this season. They are now averaging 2.15 xGF and 1.23 xGA per game compared to last season when they averaged 1.41 xGF and 1.54 xGA per game after Jose Mourinho took over. The data shows that they are rightfully second in the league.
Tottenham rolling xG average 19/20 to Present
Although, it’s important to remember that Tottenham have had the easiest opening run of fixtures in the Premier League based on the average forecast position of opponents faced. The improved stats could falsely represent how good the team really are, and until Spurs face some tougher opponents we won’t know if they can sustain their form and league position.
Average Forecast Position of Opponents Faced – Premier League 20/21
The next six matches should be a much bigger test. They play Manchester City (h), Chelsea (a), Arsenal (h), Crystal Palace (a), Liverpool (a) before hosting Leicester.
Infogol calculate that they should pick up 7.4 xPoints in those next six games. For perspective, they have Liverpool collecting 12.5 xPoints, City 12.9, Chelsea 11.2, Manchester United 11.3 and Arsenal 8.7, so Spurs could find themselves in a much lower league position by Christmas.
Relegation mini-league
Both West Brom and Fulham have struggled since gaining promotion to the Premier League and along with Sheffield United and Burnley have been tipped to be involved in a four team battle to avoid relegation.
Sheffield United have had a difficult set of fixtures – only West Ham have had a trickier opening eight games – so it is understandable that Sheff Utd are considered the most likely to stay up.
Burnley sit 19th in Infogol’s xG table, but it is worth remembering that they have played one game fewer than the other sides at the bottom of the league. They’ve once again been solid in defence (1.2 xGA per game) but are struggling to create chances (0.80 xGF per game).
Of the teams in the bottom four, Fulham have performed the best according to xPoints. They are fifth from bottom in the xG table, but Scott Parker’s side have had the third easiest run of fixtures in the league, while their next six rank as the second toughest schedule.
West Brom have a laughable attacking process (0.6 xGF per game) and the worst defensive process in the league (1.98 xGA per game). Slavan Bilic’s side created more than 1.0 xGF in a match on just once occasion. So far, they are the worst team in the Premier League this season and they look to be in major trouble.
West Brom results 20/21 Premier League
Leicester and Southampton set to slow down
There are two surprise names in the top four after eight matches as Leicester lead the way while Southampton occupy the final Champions League spot.
Brendan Rodger’s side started last season in a similar manner and were discussed as title challengers up until Christmas – the 15/16 champions are again being dragged into the conversation.
On the face of it their process is good (1.81 xGF, 1.24 xGA per game), but the eight penalties that they’ve been awarded has inflated those stats.
% of xGF from penalties in 20/21 Premier League
That means 44% of Leicester’s xGF total this season has come from penalties, a huge amount compared to the rest of the league.
Brendan Rodgers’s side will not win as many penalties over the course of the season, and given they are averaging just 1.01 non-pen xGF per game, improvements are needed from open play.
As for Southampton, they have managed to get such a high point total points total by coming out on top in tight matches that saw few chances at either end.
Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side sit eighth based on xPoints, with their xGD only +0.4 which places them 10th in the Premier League. They are overachieving in fourth place, with the process proving how tight their matches tend to be (1.25 xGF, 1.18 xGA per game).
Unless Leicester and Southampton can improve their underlying process, they won’t be in the top four for much longer.